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Donald Trump stated he’s under “no pressure” to make a deal with Iran, pushing back on urgency claims. The likelihood of Trump agreeing to Iranian oil sanction relief in April now sits at 41.5% YES, down from 62% a day ago.
The market for Trump agreeing to Iranian oil sanction relief in April dropped 14.5 percentage points, suggesting traders doubt a rapid compromise. Daily USDC volume is $6,018, with $816 required to move the price 5 points, a relatively thin book. The largest single drop was 6 points at 9:40 PM, a swift reaction to Trump’s statements.
The US-Iran permanent peace deal by April 22 market is at 19.5% YES, down from 40% yesterday. Trump’s insistence on no timeline pressure is driving that skepticism. The term structure shows traders expect a potential catalyst between April 30 and May 31, with a 22-point jump in odds across that window.
Daily USDC volume in the permanent peace market is $1,644,301. Depth to move 5 points is $9,366, meaning traders are waiting for concrete developments before committing larger positions.
Trump’s rejection of urgency points to a continued stand-off, not an imminent resolution. Prior market moves show a consistent pattern of skepticism toward a quick agreement under this administration. At 47.5¢, buying YES pays $1 if Trump agrees to Iranian oil sanction relief in April, a 2.1x return. That bet requires belief in a significant shift within the next 10 days.
Watch for Trump’s upcoming communications, particularly any statements after ceasefire developments or new diplomatic contacts. A shift in rhetoric from Trump’s advisors or a new statement from Iran’s senior officials would be the next likely catalyst.
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