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President Trump and his national-security team have expressed doubts over Iran’s proposal to open the Strait of Hormuz and discuss its nuclear activities. This skepticism leaves the odds of WTI Crude Oil hitting an all-time high by April 30 at 1% YES.
The WTI Crude Oil market for April sits at 0.4% YES, unchanged. Face value is $54,256/day with actual USDC traded at $506. The cost to move the odds by 5 percentage points is $1,632, a thin market. The crude oil all-time high market is at 1% YES, down from 2% a week ago, as traders doubt any quick resolution to the blockade.
The market betting on Trump announcing the lifting of the Hormuz blockade by May 31 dropped to 58.5% YES, down from 72% just 24 hours ago. Traders are repricing after Trump’s hardline stance, with $8,975 needed to shift the odds by 5 points.
Across these markets, traders are holding steady and waiting for concrete developments. Trump’s insistence on nuclear concessions as part of any deal keeps the blockade in play as leverage, sustaining high oil prices. A YES share for the WTI Crude Oil market at 0.4% is a long shot but pays out massively if geopolitical tensions escalate further.
Key signals to watch: any shifts in Trump’s rhetoric, potential announcements of military actions or sanctions, and OPEC+ production cut decisions. Trump’s communications and statements from the U.S. Navy could provide early indicators of market-moving events.
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