Trump expects to sign deal with Iran within days, tells Netanyahu

President Donald Trump told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that he expects to sign a deal with Iran within days, according to Axios. The agreement, a 60-day memorandum of understanding, would extend an existing ceasefire and open formal discussions on Iran’s nuclear program.

For crypto investors, this matters because Bitcoin has already been pricing in the de-escalation. BTC surged toward approximately $77,000 as news of the tentative framework filtered through markets, part of a broader rally in risk assets that coincided with falling oil prices.

What’s actually in the deal

The MOU framework covers three main areas: continuation of the current truce between the US and Iran, discussions surrounding nuclear materials, and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. That last point is particularly significant. The Strait of Hormuz is the narrow waterway through which roughly a fifth of the world’s oil supply passes daily, making it one of the most strategically important chokepoints on the planet.

Trump was reportedly scheduled for briefings in the Situation Room around May 29 to review the final details. The president has struck a characteristically transactional tone about the negotiations, saying it must be “a great deal for all or no deal.”

Iran, for its part, has not definitively confirmed its acceptance of the proposed terms. Prediction market Polymarket reflects the uncertainty. Odds of a successful US-Iran peace deal rose to 37%, which signals growing confidence but is still well below the coin-flip threshold.

What this means for investors

A 37% probability on Polymarket means the market collectively assigns a roughly two-in-three chance that this doesn’t result in a lasting peace deal. Iran’s lack of definitive confirmation is a red flag that experienced diplomacy watchers will recognize.

For altcoins, the implications are more nuanced. Broad risk-on sentiment tends to lift the entire crypto market, but the degree of the move typically scales with market cap. Bitcoin and Ethereum tend to capture the lion’s share of macro-driven inflows, with smaller tokens benefiting mainly when the rally sustains long enough to trigger a rotation into higher-beta assets.

Disclosure: This article was edited by Editorial Team. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.