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Trump and Iranian officials have acknowledged progress in negotiations, but uncertainty over the Strait of Hormuz persists. The market for a US-Iran ceasefire by April 30 is at 37.5% YES, down from 59% yesterday.
The US-Iran ceasefire market dropped sharply as traders weighed reported diplomatic progress against the ongoing US blockade of Iranian ports. The largest single move was a 4-point drop at 5:27 PM, pointing to skepticism about an imminent resolution.
The Iran uranium enrichment agreement market sits at 27.8% YES. This is a drop from 50% just 24 hours ago, following a week-long rise from 12%. The market is thin enough that $74 moved it 5 points.
For the Trump’s Hormuz blockade announcement by April 19, odds fell to 8%. Traders are not betting on a last-minute policy shift; the largest move was a 6-point drop at 6:05 PM yesterday.
The ceasefire market trades $80,435 in daily USDC volume, giving it deeper liquidity and stronger conviction signals. The uranium enrichment market, by contrast, moves 5 points on just $74, making it vulnerable to single large trades.
No concrete agreements have emerged, and traders remain cautious. At 28¢, a YES share would yield a 3.57x return if Iran halts enrichment by April 30. That bet requires confidence in a definitive diplomatic breakthrough within 12 days.
Watch for a Trump announcement on the blockade, any confirmed US-Iran agreements, or IAEA statements on uranium enrichment. Any of these could move market odds quickly.
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