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President Trump announced that negotiations between the US and Iran will continue in Islamabad tomorrow. The market for a ceasefire by April 30 is at 38% YES, down from 59% a day ago.
The ceasefire market has recovered slightly from its drop, with traders pricing the Islamabad talks as a possible step toward de-escalation. The uranium enrichment deal market is at 35.1% YES, up modestly.
The ceasefire end market for April 21 is at 16% YES, meaning traders see a low probability of an immediate resumption of hostilities. The low odds here point to an expectation that diplomatic engagement will continue even alongside military posturing.
Daily trading volume in the ceasefire market hit $80,435 in real USDC, with an order book depth of $1,566 to move the price 5 points. That depth suggests solid institutional participation. The largest price move was a 4-point drop, some volatility but contained.
If these talks produce concrete outcomes, whether a ceasefire extension or a framework for uranium discussions, odds could shift sharply. Buying YES at 38¢ would yield a 2.63x return if a ceasefire is announced by April 30.
Watch for statements from Pakistani mediators tomorrow, or confirmations of high-level attendees, either of which would signal how serious both sides are about reaching a deal.
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