Trump meets advisers on Iran, considers military strikes amid stalled negotiations

President Trump gathered his senior national security team on Friday morning to weigh military options against Iran, with sources telling Axios that new strikes are on the table if negotiations don’t produce a last-minute breakthrough.

The meeting included Vice President JD Vance, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, and CIA Director John Ratcliffe. For crypto markets already whipsawing on every headline out of the Middle East, the implications are immediate and significant.

What happened and why crypto cares

Trump had reportedly called off a planned military strike around May 20 at the request of Gulf leaders from Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, who argued that serious negotiations over Iran’s nuclear capabilities were making progress.

US strikes against Iran began in late February 2026, setting off a chain of escalatory responses that rattled energy markets and, by extension, every asset class that trades on risk sentiment.

Bitcoin has traded in a range between $65,000 and $78,000 during April and May 2026, with notable price drops coinciding with strike threats and recoveries arriving when de-escalation signals emerged. Ethereum followed a similar pattern, climbing above $2,200 on reports of ceasefire progress.

Crypto as a risk asset, not a bunker

Bitcoin’s price action during this conflict has tracked much more closely with traditional risk assets than with gold. When strike threats escalate, Bitcoin drops. When diplomacy makes progress, Bitcoin recovers.

No major crypto protocols, companies, or tokens beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum have shown meaningful correlation with the Iran negotiations. This isn’t a sector-specific event. It’s a macro event that happens to move crypto because crypto now lives in the same risk neighborhood as equities and commodities.

The Strait of Hormuz is central to why. Roughly a fifth of the world’s oil supply passes through that chokepoint, and any military escalation in the region threatens to disrupt energy flows. Higher energy prices mean higher inflation expectations, which means tighter monetary conditions, which means risk assets sell off.

The negotiation timeline

Talks between the US and Iran have been ongoing in various forms since April 2025, with discussions taking place in venues including Oman and Rome.

Saudi Arabia and the UAE have enormous economic incentives to avoid a wider regional conflict that could disrupt their own energy infrastructure and economic diversification plans.

What this means for investors

The $65,000 to $78,000 range on Bitcoin represents the market’s attempt to price in two scenarios simultaneously: a diplomatic resolution that clears the way for risk-on positioning, and a military escalation that could spike oil prices and trigger a broader risk-off move.

Ethereum’s move above $2,200 on ceasefire signals offers a preview of what a real de-escalation rally might look like.

Energy market dynamics and Middle East headlines are now required reading for crypto investors. If the Friday meeting produces hawkish signals, expect Bitcoin to test the lower bound of its recent range. If Gulf leaders again manage to broker a diplomatic pause, the relief rally could be swift.

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