Trump pulls ahead in betting markets, Musk calls it a more accurate forecast

Aggregated odds show Trump leading Harris in electoral college projections, sparking debate over the predictive power of betting markets in election outcomes.

Cover art/illustration via CryptoSlate. Image includes combined content which may include AI-generated content.

Former President Donald Trump has gained a slight edge over Vice President Kamala Harris in betting markets for the 2024 presidential election, with Polymarket showing him ahead 53.7% to 45.6%.

The margin, while narrow, marks the first time Trump has taken the lead since Harris was nominated by the Democratic party after President Joe Biden withdrew from the race.

As of Oct. 7, over $1.4 billion has been wagered on the outcome of the race on Polymarket alone.

‘More accurate than polls’

Aggregated odds from various platforms also show Trump leading Harris, including a projected 281-257 electoral college lead.

These betting trends have sparked debate over their predictive power, especially after Tesla CEO Elon Musk endorsed Trump at a Pennsylvania rally. He also highlighted the recent lead and said that prediction markets are a more “accurate” measure of the current sentiment among voters.

Musk said in a social media post:

“Trump now leading Kamala by 3% in betting markets. More accurate than polls, as actual money is on the line.”

US courts recently ruled in favor of prediction markets and ruled that betting on major political events like the presidential elections was legal, which has given a significant boost to platforms offering such markets.

However, as Election Day nears, political analysts caution against over-reliance on betting markets, which, while reflective of current sentiment, are not immune to last-minute shifts.

Bitcoin outlook

A recent Bernstein report suggested that Bitcoin could surge to between $80,000 and $90,000 if Trump wins, thanks to his support for digital assets and his promise to bolster the US as a leader in the crypto industry.

On the other hand, a Harris victory could see Bitcoin trade between $30,000 and $40,000, reflecting her more cautious stance on the industry.

Meanwhile, Standard Chartered has projected a Bitcoin rally regardless of the winner, though the bank sees a greater rise — up to $125,000 — if Trump takes office, compared to $75,000 under Harris. The sentiment is echoed in the wider crypto industry, with many expecting a more favorable regulatory environment under Trump.

Trump’s policies, including aggressive tax cuts, are expected to swell the national deficit, further raising inflation and boosting Treasury yields. Analysts suggest that this could create a perfect storm for Bitcoin’s growth, positioning it as a hedge against inflation and market uncertainty.

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