Trump receives updates on Iran talks from Pakistani mediators: CNN

Trump is receiving regular updates on Iran talks from Pakistani mediators, according to CNN. The US-Iran permanent peace deal by April 22 market sits at 43.5% YES.

The updates have barely moved expectations for a uranium enrichment agreement. Odds of Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by April 30 are at 56.2% YES, up from 35% a day ago. This 14-day window remains volatile, with traders reacting to any signals from Tehran or Washington.

The April 22 peace deal market is flat at 43.5% YES, consistent with skepticism about a deal closing in 6 days. The depth of $16,312 to move 5 points suggests institutional interest but not confidence in near-term resolution.

Iran’s missile capacity, highlighted by US intelligence, complicates the path to any quick agreement. At 56.2% YES, betting $0.39 per share pays $1 if resolved, a 2.55x return. Skepticism holds until concrete disarmament signs emerge.

Watch for announcements from Pakistani mediators or direct statements from Trump or Khamenei. A confirmed second round of talks would be notable. CENTCOM briefings on military posture shifts could also move these markets.

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