Trump’s Lead Narrows as Kamala Harris Gains Ground in Betting Markets

Betting markets continue to show Donald Trump as the favorite in the upcoming presidential election, but recent data points to Vice President Kamala Harris closing in on his lead as election day approaches.

Trump previously held a strong advantage, with odds above 60%. However, recent trends suggest the race could be closer than expected, as Harris’s odds rise and Trump’s slip.

Harris Rises on Prediction Platforms as Trump Dips

On the decentralized prediction platform Polymarket, Harris’s odds climbed from 33% on October 30 to around 44% currently. This upward trend has brought Trump’s odds down to 56%, a two-week low. A similar shift is visible on Kalshi, a U.S.-based betting platform, where Harris now trails Trump by just two points with a 49% chance of winning.

Market analysts believe traders might be adjusting their Trump bets by buying into Harris shares as a hedge. Some speculate the shift reflects concerns about potential voting issues that could impact Trump’s chances, while others suggest market dynamics are simply favoring Harris for now.

Traditional polling supports this trend, with Harris gaining slightly in key swing states. In Iowa, recent polling data shows her leading Trump 47% to 44%, largely due to growing support among women voters. If Harris were to win in Iowa, that would be a dramatic departure from the two most recent presidential elections; the president carried Iowa in both 2016 and 2020.

While the betting markets are still a very uncertain predictor-the most famous case being that they notably missed Trump’s 2016 victory-they at least provide a valuable real-time insight. Closer to the election, these trends suggest a slightly tighter race than early projections indicated.