Trump’s secret backchannel to Iran’s Revolutionary Guard revealed: Axios

A recent report by Axios has revealed the existence of a secret backchannel between former U.S. President Donald Trump and Iran’s Revolutionary Guard. This communication line sheds light on potential behind-the-scenes diplomatic engagements amid ongoing tensions between the U.S. and Iran. The revelation comes as the geopolitical climate remains tense, with the U.S.-Iran confrontation having escalated into direct military conflict earlier in 2026. The backchannel suggests a possible opening for dialogue with one of Iran’s most powerful military-security institutions, although no concrete diplomatic actions have been confirmed. Key Takeaways The report appears to suggest potential diplomatic engagement between the U.S. and Iran through a backchannel, potentially impacting future U.S.-Iran relations. Market activity indicates a slight increase in confidence for the end of the Iranian blockade by the end of the year, with the December 31, 2026, market currently at 80% YES. Current pricing for the August 31, 2026, market reflects a 17.5% probability that an announcement ending the blockade will occur by that date, showing limited immediate impact from the Axios report. What to Watch Obs...