18 hours ago
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Trump says it’s “highly unlikely” he’ll extend the ceasefire with Iran. The ceasefire extension by April 21 market sits at 31% YES, down from 86% just 24 hours ago.
The market moved fast after Trump’s comments, with the biggest single shift being a 4-point drop at 11:09 AM as traders digested the news. The April 21 market fell from 86% to 31% over the past day, while the US-Iran permanent peace deal for April 22 dropped to 19.5% YES from 40%.
Daily volume is $82,767 in USDC, and it takes $9,463 to move the price 5 points. The permanent peace deal market is even more volatile: a 5-point drop to 19.5% YES on April 22 suggests deeper doubts about any long-term resolution.
Trump’s comments point to a possible return to military action and raise the risk of renewed conflict. The source’s tier 2 classification, while credible, leaves room for this to be a negotiating tactic rather than a final position. At 31¢, a YES share pays $1 if the ceasefire extends, offering a 1.56x return. This is a bet on Pakistan’s mediation efforts producing results within 3 days.
Watch for updates from Vance’s trip to Pakistan, particularly any joint statements from Sharif or Trump. A last-minute diplomatic agreement could reverse these odds sharply.
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