Trump threatens renewed Iran strikes unless nuclear deal closes, with oil markets watching the Strait of Hormuz

The last time the world held its breath over the Strait of Hormuz, oil markets convulsed and insurance premiums for tankers spiked overnight. That scenario is back on the table. US President Donald Trump has signaled he may order strikes on Iran if Tehran refuses to permanently end its nuclear program and keep the Strait of Hormuz open for global shipping. A year of threats, cancellations, and uneasy pauses In February 2026, Trump reportedly considered a limited initial strike on Iran, with internal discussions centering on a 10-day decision window for action. That window closed without a strike, replaced by a new round of diplomatic engagement. Then came June 11, 2026. Trump canceled a fresh set of planned strikes after White House officials cited progress in negotiations. The cancellation came after Trump had publicly warned of what he called “very hard” actions against Tehran. Current deal frameworks being discussed reportedly include timelines for a pause in Iran’s enrichment activities ranging from 10 to 20 years. A potential deal outline emerged in May and June 2026, with subsequent nuclear-specific talks penciled in across a 60-day period. Why the Strait of Hormuz changes ev...