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Trump plans a national security meeting to discuss the Iran stalemate, as reported by CNN. The odds of Trump agreeing to Iranian oil sanction relief in April are at 3%, down from 14% yesterday.
News of a potential resumption of bombing is causing traders to reassess their positions. The market for Trump agreeing to Iranian demands in April is now at 3% YES, down from 14% yesterday and 62% a week ago. The diplomatic meeting by April 30 market tracks the same direction, with odds at 0.7%.
The April 26 market for a diplomatic meeting sits at 0.1% YES, making a US-Iran meeting this week virtually impossible by trader consensus. Trading volume is thin: just $525 in actual USDC traded in the last 24 hours.
The oil sanction relief market has $1,944 in actual USDC traded, showing genuine interest despite the collapsing odds. The largest move was an 8-point spike at 12:08 PM, suggesting a temporary surge in optimism. It takes only $119 to move this market 5 points, meaning large single orders can shift the price without broad agreement among traders.
The plunge from 62% to 3% in one week is a recalibration of expectations, not noise. A YES share at 3¢ offers a 33x return if Trump agrees to relief by April. But that bet requires a dramatic reversal in Trump’s approach, such as an unexpected diplomatic breakthrough, before month’s end.
Watch for Trump’s statements after the meeting and any signals from CENTCOM that could affect military actions. A shift in rhetoric or confirmation of resumed talks would move these markets fast.
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