Trump unlikely to accept Iran proposal, casting doubt on Hormuz blockade talks

CNN reports President Trump is unlikely to accept Iran’s latest proposal, casting doubt on negotiations. The market for Trump announcing the lifting of the US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by May 31 now sits at 58% YES, down from 72% just 24 hours ago.

Market reaction

With Trump’s refusal to accept Iran’s terms, traders pushed odds lower across multiple timeframes. The May 31 market had the steepest drop, losing 14 points in a day. Daily volume is $95,253 in USDC, though it only takes $8,975 to move this market 5 points. The largest move in the past day was a 5-point spike at 3:50 PM.

Permanent peace deal markets also dropped sharply. The April 30 contract collapsed to 1% YES. The May 31 and June 30 markets fell to 28% and 40% YES, respectively. Traders are pricing in low odds of any near-term resolution.

Why it matters

The Strait of Hormuz is the central bargaining chip in these negotiations. As long as it’s leveraged by both sides, the odds of a quick resolution stay low. At 58¢, a YES share on the blockade lifting pays $1 if it resolves, a 1.72x return. But given Trump’s stance, you’d need to believe a diplomatic breakthrough is imminent to justify that bet.

What to watch

Any announcements from the White House or Pentagon about changes in military posture in the region. A sudden shift in US naval deployment could signal a change before official statements come.

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