Trump weighs Iran deal or military action, to decide by Sunday as Bitcoin drops to two-week low

President Trump was, by his own account, an hour away from authorizing military strikes on Iran. Then he picked up the phone.

On May 19, Trump announced he had called off planned strikes against Iran, set to launch on Tuesday, after requests from Gulf allies including Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE. US forces remain on standby for what the administration has described as potential large-scale assaults if negotiations collapse.

The deadline, per Trump, is Sunday. By then, the president says he will decide between two paths: a deal with Iran that meets US requirements, or resuming the military option.

The nuclear brinkmanship behind the deadline

The current standoff traces back to the breakdown of prior nuclear agreements and the aftermath of what’s been called the “Twelve-Day War” ceasefire in 2025.

Earlier this month, Iran dismissed a US peace proposal as “totally unacceptable.” Trump’s response was characteristically blunt, warning that “the clock is ticking” on Tehran.

In a notable check on executive power, the Senate voted 50-47 to curb Trump’s war powers concerning Iran. The vote doesn’t prevent military action entirely, but it does add a procedural speed bump.

How crypto markets are absorbing the shock

Bitcoin fell to a two-week low near $76,500 in the immediate aftermath of Trump’s warnings about Iran. The sell-off wasn’t isolated to Bitcoin. Ether and other major tokens also saw downward pressure as traders repriced risk across the board.

The Senate’s 50-47 vote to limit war powers provided a brief reprieve. Bitcoin and broader crypto markets saw slight recoveries following the vote. A single phrase like “the clock is ticking” can erase billions in market cap within hours.

What this means for investors navigating the countdown

The Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly a fifth of the world’s oil supply passes, becomes the critical variable in any military scenario. Any disruption there would spike energy prices, tighten financial conditions globally, and create macro headwinds for speculative assets.

The Senate’s war powers vote signals that congressional appetite for unilateral strikes is limited. If Trump proceeds with military force anyway, the resulting constitutional friction could add another layer of uncertainty to markets.

For crypto traders specifically, the lesson of the past few weeks is that position sizing matters more than conviction right now. The traders who navigated Bitcoin’s drop to $76,500 best weren’t the ones who predicted it. They were the ones whose exposure was sized for the possibility.

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