Trump won’t extend ceasefire, WTI Crude Oil market remains unchanged

Trump has declared he won’t extend the ceasefire deadline past Wednesday. The Polymarket contract for WTI Crude Oil hitting $160 in April sits at 1.2% YES, unchanged from earlier today.

Market reaction

The WTI Crude Oil market hasn’t moved. The $160 contract holds steady at its low probability, and sub-markets for other price targets like $140 and $150 also sit at 1% YES. With the ceasefire set to expire in a couple of days, traders appear skeptical that the situation will escalate enough to push oil prices materially higher.

Why it matters

Trading volume is thin. Face value is $20,174 daily, but only $316 in real USDC has changed hands. It takes $2,188 to move the price 5 percentage points, so any real shift would require a large buyer stepping in. Trump’s refusal to extend the ceasefire could be a negotiating tactic rather than a move toward renewed conflict. A YES share at 1.2¢ pays $1 if WTI hits $160, a 83x return. But that bet requires believing in a dramatic escalation within the next week. At current odds, the market is treating this as noise rather than a genuine probability shift.

What to watch

The negotiations in Pakistan are the next catalyst. If Iran’s delegation confirms attendance or if nuclear deal details emerge, that could move the contracts. Any sudden shift in oil spot prices or new statements from Trump would be the triggers to watch.

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