UCLA study finds no AI-related spike in unemployment for recent graduates

Everyone’s been waiting for the other shoe to drop. AI was supposed to eat entry-level jobs first, turning fresh college graduates into the canaries in the economic coal mine. A new working paper from UCLA says the canaries are doing fine. Economists Robert Fairlie and Jane Wu analyzed US labor data and found that the unemployment rate for recent graduates aged 22 to 25 during summer 2026 came in at 7.3%. That number sits comfortably within the range of the four preceding summers, which bounced between 6.3% and 7.8%. In other words, the great AI hiring freeze hasn’t materialized, at least not yet. What the numbers actually show The study, released as CESifo Working Paper No. 12994 and NBER Working Paper 35796, drew on US Current Population Survey microdata covering June through August 2026. The researchers chose this window deliberately: by mid-2026, workplace AI adoption was expected to be well underway, making it a natural checkpoint for labor market effects. The year-over-year comparison is remarkably stable. Summer 2022 saw a 7.1% unemployment rate for this cohort. Summer 2023 dipped to 6.3%. Summer 2024 ticked up to 7.8%. Summer 2025 landed at 7.2%. And now summer 2026 at 7.3%...