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The UN reports Iran has executed at least 21 people and arrested over 4,000 since the war with Israel began. The Iranian regime fall by April 30 market sits at 0.1% YES, unchanged from yesterday.
The continued crackdown has not moved expectations around the Iranian regime’s stability. The April 30 market remains at 0.1% YES, pricing in near-zero likelihood of imminent regime collapse. The May 31 market holds at 3% YES, a consistent low probability for change within the next month. These markets have $2.6M in face value and $92.5K in actual USDC traded daily.
The UN report fits a pattern of the regime tightening its grip, which makes the prospect of Reza Pahlavi entering Iran by June 30 even more remote (that market has yet to see significant volume). Iranian leadership change by December 31 also looks less likely given the regime’s demonstrated control over dissent through mass arrests and executions.
For traders, current odds price in deep skepticism about near-term regime change despite international condemnation. At 3¢, a YES share for regime fall by May 31 pays $1 if it resolves, but the trade requires belief in a significant shift within 32 days.
Watch for signs of defection or dissent within the IRGC, or any major international political moves, as these could materially shift odds.
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