2 hours ago
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Odds for a US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30 have dropped to 2.8% YES, down from 68% a week ago, as US and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities and energy infrastructure have overtaken diplomatic efforts.
Market reaction
The US-Iran nuclear deal market fell from 7% to 3¢ YES over the past 24 hours. The largest move was a 4-point spike at 3:50 PM that briefly pushed odds to 12% before quickly receding. With six days left until resolution, traders are pricing in near-certain failure.
The US-Iran diplomatic meeting locations market sits at 13.9% YES for no qualifying diplomatic meeting by June 30. That market has $55,592 in daily face value but takes just $141 to move the price 5 points, making it vulnerable to sharp swings from single trades.
Why it matters
Military strikes on Iranian nuclear and energy targets have made any near-term diplomatic agreement functionally impossible on the current timeline. Markets betting on related diplomatic progress, including Trump agreeing to Iranian oil sanction relief by April, face the same problem: active hostilities and a shrinking calendar.
What to watch
Traders should track statements or actions from Trump, Khamenei, or intermediaries like Oman. Any of these could signal a last-minute diplomatic shift. For now, buying NO shares or selling YES at 3¢ carries minimal risk. A successful NO bet pays $1 per share.
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