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The US blockade in the Strait of Hormuz continues with no signs of lifting. The probability of Trump announcing an end to the blockade by May 31 remains at 82% YES.
The blockade has reduced commercial traffic through the strait and drawn attention to a related market: whether the United Kingdom will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30. That market sits at 8% YES, down from 12% a week ago, indicating growing skepticism about UK naval intervention.
Odds for Trump’s blockade announcement have held steady, with the May 31 market at 82%. Traders expect continued US pressure on Iran with limited diplomatic progress. The April 19 market sits at 17.5%, showing low confidence in a quick resolution.
Volume at $33,928 USDC traded in the last 24 hours. It takes $3,730 to move the market 5 points, a thick order book. The largest move was a 6-point drop at 5:53 PM in the April 19 market, showing sensitivity to regional news.
The blockade’s continuation without diplomatic breakthroughs matters because it signals the US is committed to economic pressure on Iran, likely prolonging the standoff. Al Jazeera’s coverage points in the same direction. This market offers a contrarian opportunity: buying YES at 8¢ pays $1 if UK warships transit by April 30, a 18.2x return if tensions escalate further.
Watch for announcements from the UK Ministry of Defence or any joint naval exercises involving European countries. Either could move the UK warship market sharply.
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