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The US-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon has taken effect, pausing the 2026 Lebanon war. The ceasefire by April 30 market is at 93.7% YES, up from 45% a week ago.
Traders reacted quickly to the ceasefire announcement. The June 30 market is now at 96.6% YES, up from 67% last week. The term structure shows a 3-point rise from April 30 to June 30, which points to confidence in longer-term de-escalation. The suspension of Israel’s Lebanon offensive by April 30 is at 96.2% YES.
USDC trading volume hit $1,205,891 across Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire markets in the past 24 hours. The 13-point spike in the April 30 market occurred at 1:16 PM, driven by large buy orders. Order book depth suggests it takes $50K to move these odds by 5 points, a sign of strong liquidity.
Previous Israel-Hezbollah ceasefires have broken down, and the current odds leave little room for that risk. At 94¢, a YES share pays $1 if the ceasefire holds, a 1.06x return. The main risk for YES holders is that Hezbollah’s compliance remains uncertain.
Watch for Netanyahu’s statements and Hezbollah troop movements. Any breach of the ceasefire or new military operations would reprice these markets fast.
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