US government to ease marijuana restrictions, rescheduling by year-end possible

The US government plans to ease federal restrictions on marijuana, with the odds of rescheduling by December 31 now at 42.6% YES, down from 62% just 24 hours ago.

Market reaction

The December 31 market hit a high of 66%, driven by an 8-point spike at 12:30 PM, before pulling back. The June 30 market collapsed to 9.5% after a 16-point drop from 36% to 20% at 12:41 PM, showing traders have largely abandoned the near-term timeline.

Why it matters

The term structure shows a 33-point gap between the June 30 and December 31 contracts, meaning traders expect any regulatory action to take most of the year. With 252 days left on the December resolution and 68 days on June, the market is pricing rescheduling as a slow bureaucratic process rather than an imminent policy change.

What to watch

Combined USDC volume over the last 24 hours was $96,741. The June 30 market requires $1,526 to move odds 5 points, while the December market needs only $775 for the same move, making it more vulnerable to sharp swings. Watch for official announcements from the DEA or statements from Terrance Cole or Pam Bondi. Any confirmed action or expedited hearing dates could move these contracts quickly.

At 43¢, a YES share for rescheduling by December 31 pays $1 if successful, a 2.33x return. That bet requires believing in concrete federal action within 252 days.

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