3 hours ago
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The US has initiated a multi-layered naval blockade on Iranian ports using F-35s, destroyers, and satellite surveillance, according to Al Arabiya. The probability of the US lifting the blockade by May 31 sits at 80% YES.
The blockade took effect April 14 and represents a direct escalation in the US-Iran conflict. The market for lifting the blockade by May 31 trades at a high probability, meaning traders expect the blockade to persist. Odds for lifting by April 17 are at just 15.5%.
The blockade has also moved the market for UK warships transiting the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, now at 10% YES. The increased military presence and aggressive enforcement likely deter such transits, with expectations of zero points gain in the term structure over the next 15 days.
Trading activity across related markets totals $64,275 in USDC. The largest move was a 24-point spike in the April 17 sub-market, showing sharp reactions to fast-moving developments. But moving the odds requires less than $1,000, meaning single trades can still cause large swings.
For traders, the blockade reinforces the US stance and reduces the likelihood of early resolution. Buying YES shares in the May 31 market at 80¢ implies a 1.25x return if resolved, but that bet only pays off with a major US policy reversal or a diplomatic breakthrough.
Watch for US and Iranian diplomatic moves, particularly any statements from CENTCOM or the Trump administration, as these will likely drive the next major price action.
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