US intensifies airstrikes on Iran after soldiers killed in Jordan

The United States and Iran have continued their military engagements into Sunday, as the US aims to retaliate against Iran for an attack that killed two American soldiers in Jordan. This escalation marks the eighth consecutive night of US airstrikes on Iran, targeting Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) positions. The renewed hostilities come amid the broader context of the 2026 Iran war, which reignited earlier this year following a breakdown of ceasefire agreements. The US strategy appears to focus on punitive measures rather than purely strategic degradation, as evidenced by the targeted strikes on the IRGC units linked to the Jordan attack.

Key Takeaways

• The ongoing US-Iran conflict appears to have intensified following the death of US soldiers in Jordan, suggesting increased military actions.
• Market pricing suggests a higher likelihood of Iranian military action against Gulf states, with odds for a July 22 action currently at 60.5% YES.
• Recent developments reflect a significant shift from earlier peace efforts, indicating potential for further regional instability.

What to Watch

Observers will be monitoring responses from key regional actors such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE, whose actions could further influence market perceptions. Continued US strikes or Iranian retaliations could lead to increased tensions and impact market odds. Additionally, diplomatic efforts by Qatar or Oman may play a crucial role in de-escalating the situation, potentially affecting the likelihood of further military actions in the Gulf region.

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Disclosure: This article was edited by Estefano Gomez. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.