US-Iran ceasefire in effect, April 7 odds surge as traders bet on short-term hold

The US-Iran ceasefire is now officially in place, halting US strikes on Iran. Ceasefire by April 7 odds are at 57% YES, up from 8% a week ago.

The announcement has shifted odds significantly. The April 15 market rose to 70.5% YES, up from 14% in 24 hours. April 30 odds are at 72.5% YES, up from 36% a week ago. Traders are confident the ceasefire will hold short-term.

The US forces entering Iran by April 30 market dropped sharply. Odds are now at 98.8% YES, down from 57% a week ago, showing reduced likelihood of US ground forces entering Iran. The ceasefire also eases pressure on the Iranian regime, with the regime fall by June 30 market at 11% YES.

Trading activity shows strong conviction. USDC traded was $3.7M in ceasefire markets over 24 hours. A 42-point spike at 10:33 PM was driven by $1.5M USDC volume, indicating belief in the ceasefire’s short-term durability.

The ceasefire is crucial but uncertain. The White House noted potential communication delays to IRGC units, suggesting uneven enforcement. At 43¢, a YES share for the ceasefire by April 7 pays $1 if it resolves, a 2.33x return. Confidence in diplomatic channels is key.

Watch for CENTCOM announcements and Iranian responses to ensure compliance. Any rogue IRGC actions or hawkish rhetoric could quickly change market dynamics.

Get prediction market intelligence as a structured API feed. Early access waitlist.