US-Iran ceasefire odds drop to 1.1% as military plans escalate tensions

The U.S. and Israel’s joint plans to target Iran’s nuclear facilities have slashed the odds of a US-Iran ceasefire by April 7 to 1.1%, down from 2% yesterday and 12% a week ago.

Markets show skepticism about a diplomatic resolution soon. The April 15 ceasefire market dropped to 6.5% from 8% yesterday and 22% last week. The April 30 market fell to 17.5% YES from 24% a day earlier. The May 31 market saw the largest drop, now at 36.5% YES, down from 46% yesterday. Traders expect the best chance for peace between April 30 and May 31, with a 19-point jump.

Daily trading volume is $430,773, with most activity around the April 30 and May 31 markets. It takes $12,367 to move the April 7 market by five points, indicating a thin market vulnerable to large trades.

The military plans by the U.S. and Israel suggest further escalation, reducing ceasefire odds. Strikes on nuclear sites are significant, but without diplomatic moves, they don’t indicate a resolution. A YES share at 1.1¢ pays $1 if a ceasefire is announced by April 7, offering a 90.9x return, but the chance is low without diplomatic progress.

Watch for statements from CENTCOM or diplomatic moves by Oman or Qatar, which might signal de-escalation. Any Iranian retaliation would likely lower these odds further.

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