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The US-Iran ceasefire is set to expire on April 22, with negotiations stalled. The odds of Trump announcing the end of the ceasefire by April 21 have risen to 20% YES, up from 6% just 24 hours ago.
Following collapsed talks and a near-empty Strait of Hormuz, the April 21 ceasefire end market saw a 5-point spike at 11:03 AM, moving from 12% to 18%. The cost to move the market 5 percentage points is just $880, which means even modest trades can cause large swings.
The broader US-Iran ceasefire market for April 30 fell to 37.5% YES from 59% a day ago. There are no scheduled talks and hostilities continue, which explains traders’ skepticism about a peaceful resolution within the next 12 days.
Markets around diplomatic meetings with Iran by April 30 have also dropped to 13% YES. Trump has hinted at resumed discussions, but traders are pricing in continued standoffs rather than any diplomatic meeting.
Daily volume in the ceasefire end market is $7,248 in USDC, making this a thinly traded space. Large orders can move the needle fast. The 5-point spike on a single trade shows how quickly sentiment shifts at this volume.
At 20¢, a YES share pays $1 if Trump announces the ceasefire end by April 21, a 6.25x return. For that bet to make sense, traders need to believe hostilities restart before the April 22 expiration.
Watch for US statements on new sanctions or military actions, and Iran’s response to the naval blockade. Either could move these markets sharply.
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