2 hours ago
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The US-Iran war is squeezing India’s rupee as oil prices soar, despite state-run banks’ dollar sales. The market on WTI Crude Oil reaching an all-time high by April 30 sits at 1.1% YES, down from 2% a day ago.
The rupee’s weakness against the dollar comes from India’s exposure to rising oil prices driven by the US-Iran conflict. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has pushed oil prices up over 40%, with Brent crude above $104 per barrel. This has widened India’s trade deficit and pressured the currency, though Reserve Bank of India interventions have provided some relief. On Polymarket, the crude oil all-time high contract prices a 1.1% chance of crude reaching record highs.
Market activity is modest but present. The crude oil all-time high market saw a 1-point spike at 5:31 AM, briefly touching 4% before settling back to 1.1% YES. Combined 24-hour face value is $100,828 with actual USDC trades at $2,513. It takes $695 to move the price 5 percentage points, meaning the book is thin enough that a single large order could shift the odds meaningfully.
The surge in oil prices from the Strait of Hormuz closure raises the probability of crude reaching an all-time high. A YES share at 1.1¢ pays $1 if the contract resolves positively, a 91x return. This market’s direction depends on how the US-Iran conflict develops and whether any resolution stabilizes oil supply.
Watch for announcements of peace talks or strategic petroleum reserve releases that could change oil price direction. OPEC+ production decisions will also directly affect where crude trades through April.
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