US-Iran nuclear talks stall as 60-day deadline passes without deal

The 60-day deadline for the U.S. and Iran to reach a final nuclear agreement has passed without a deal being struck, raising tensions across the Middle East. This development has been highlighted by Al Jazeera, underscoring the increasing strain in the region spanning from Oman’s coastline to Lebanon. The ongoing conflict, which escalated into open warfare earlier this year, remains in a fragile ceasefire with indirect diplomacy facilitated by regional mediators. The lack of progress in negotiations suggests a potential breakdown, affecting markets’ outlook on the possibility of a deal being reached. Markets have adjusted expectations in response to these developments. The implied probability of a U.S.-Iran nuclear deal by August 18, 2026, has remained nearly static at 0.1% as the deadline approached. Additional sub-markets also reflect skepticism, with the likelihood of a deal by August 31st at 0.9% and by September 30th at 3.6%, both showing declining trends over the past week. The broader geopolitical repercussions and increasing military activities in the region have likely contributed to this pessimistic outlook. The nuclear deal market remains sensitive to statements from key...