US, Israel plan potential strikes on Iran, targeting civilian infrastructure

The ongoing conflict involving the U.S., Israel, and Iran may escalate further, as the U.S. and Israel are reportedly preparing for potential new military strikes against Iran. According to CBS Politics, this move could broaden the scope of the conflict to include civilian infrastructure, such as energy facilities, which would increase pressure on Iran’s economy. The situation remains fluid, with the U.S. awaiting final authorization for the strikes, suggesting that high-level coordination between the U.S. and Israel is ongoing. In the prediction markets, this development appears to have impacted the likelihood of a U.S.-Iran deal being reached in 2026. The potential for further military action seems to have decreased confidence in the inclusion of Iran Reconstruction Funding in any forthcoming agreement. Markets are assessing the risk of a new round of strikes as a significant factor, which could complicate diplomatic efforts and negotiation progress. Activity reflects a decrease in the probability of a deal, with several key indicators showing declining confidence. The pricing suggests that participants view the likelihood of a resolution as less certain amid these heightened ten...