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The US military has widened its blockade around Iran, now targeting contraband such as munitions and weapons. Trump’s announcement to lift the Hormuz blockade by May 31 is at 83% YES, holding steady from 24 hours ago.
The expansion makes it less likely Trump announces a lifting soon. The market for Trump’s blockade announcement by April 19 sits at 15.0% YES, up slightly from 16%. The Strait of Hormuz returning to normal by April 30 holds at 55.5% YES.
$56,702 in USDC was traded across blockade-related markets. Moving the price by 5 points requires $250 to $1,711 depending on the market, a moderate barrier for retail traders but not for larger players. The largest recent move was a 24-point spike in the April 17 market, signaling volatility.
The blockade expansion is a shift in strategy, not just scope. It complicates any near-term resolution, particularly with Iran labeling it piracy. With Trump’s May 31 deadline at 83%, traders are pricing in a drawn-out conflict. Buying YES at 15.0¢ pays $1, a 4.2x return if Trump surprises with diplomatic progress.
Watch for CENTCOM operations or statements around April 19. Trump’s rhetoric and Iranian responses will move these markets.
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