4 hours ago
2
The US Senate rejected the war powers resolution, keeping the door open for further military action. The likelihood of a US-Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30 sits at 1.8% YES.
The ongoing Strait of Hormuz blockade and stalled peace talks have traders skeptical about a diplomatic breakthrough. The market for a US-Iran meeting by June 30 holds at 1.8% YES, unchanged after the Senate vote. The market for Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by April 30 dropped to 39.3% YES, down from 42% yesterday.
The market for Trump agreeing to Iranian oil sanction relief in April is flat at 36.5% YES. The Senate vote signals continued hardball, with volume at $2,731 in USDC exchanged at current odds.
The blockade complicates any diplomatic path forward. Without a Senate constraint on military action, Trump’s negotiating position becomes more aggressive, which reduces the odds of US concessions. Buying YES at 1.8¢ implies a 55.5x return if a meeting occurs, a bet that requires belief in rapid diplomatic de-escalation.
Watch Major Garrett’s CBS interviews for Senate leadership reactions, and track Iranian state media for shifts in negotiation stance. Any update from Abbas Araghchi or a surprise diplomatic overture could move these markets fast.
Get prediction market intelligence as a structured API feed. Early access waitlist.
English (US) · 