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US Vice President JD Vance has called off a planned trip to Pakistan, according to an AP report citing a US official. The odds of a permanent US-Iran peace deal by April 22 now sit at 1.8% YES, down from 16% yesterday.
The April 22 market dropped to 1.8% YES with just two days remaining. The April 30 market is at 21.5% YES, and the May 31 market sits at 54% YES. Traders appear to expect little progress by the April 22 deadline, given the absence of any high-level meetings.
The cancellation has also moved the longer-dated markets. The largest single shift in the past day was a 5-point drop in the April 30 market, likely reflecting fading optimism about a quick resolution. These markets traded $1.1M in USDC volume over the past 24 hours, with $12,019 available to move April 30 odds 5 points.
The decision to keep Vance in Washington suggests a pause in direct US-Iran engagement. At current odds, a YES share for a permanent peace deal by April 22 pays $1 if it resolves, an 8x return. For this bet to make sense, you’d need to believe a breakthrough could happen within two days, which looks increasingly unlikely.
Watch for any statements from the White House or Iran regarding new diplomatic meetings. Any shifts in US or Iranian military postures could also move these markets.
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