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US War Secretary Pete Hegseth warned of targeting Iran’s critical infrastructure if no peace deal is reached. The US-Iran ceasefire by April 21 sits at 8% YES, while a permanent peace deal by April 22 is at 17.5% YES.
The April 21 ceasefire odds remain low, with traders skeptical that hostilities will end within five days. The April 22 peace deal market, priced at 17.5%, shows little expectation of a diplomatic breakthrough. The biggest move is in the April 30 peace market, up from 17% a week ago to 34.5%, which points to some trader confidence in a resolution by month’s end.
Combined 24-hour USDC volume across these markets was $699,190. It takes $16,401 to move the April 22 ceasefire odds by five points, a sign of a thick order book. The largest recent price move was a 4-point spike at 12:18 AM, likely driven by active speculation or a single large order.
Hegseth’s comments signal potential escalation rather than resolution, which is why the near-term ceasefire markets remain depressed. A YES share for a ceasefire by April 21 at 8¢ pays $1 if it resolves, a 12.5x return. For that to happen, a diplomatic shift would need to materialize within 5 days.
Watch for CENTCOM statements and any intermediary activity from Oman or Qatar. A scheduled diplomatic meeting or a change in rhetoric from either side would move these markets.
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