Vitol CEO warns of unsustainable 5-6M bpd gap in China’s crude imports

Russell Hardy, CEO of Vitol, the world’s largest independent oil trader, is sounding the alarm on a gap in China’s crude imports that he says simply cannot last. The difference between what China was importing in 2025, roughly 11.6 million barrels per day, and what it’s bringing in now, closer to 6 million bpd, represents a swing of more than 5 million barrels per day. The numbers behind the warning China spent much of 2025 on a buying spree, stockpiling crude at a pace that Rystad estimated at around 430,000 bpd above normal consumption needs. By late 2025, imports had climbed to approximately 11.6 million bpd, a record. Then came the reversal. By May and June of 2026, China’s crude imports had cratered to around 6.07 million bpd. The culprit, according to analysts, is a cocktail of geopolitical disruptions centered on the Middle East, particularly involving Iran and the Strait of Hormuz, combined with a deliberate strategic pivot inside Beijing. Rather than competing for barrels in a turbulent market, China opted to burn through its reserves. Refiners have been drawing down both commercial and strategic petroleum stockpiles at rates exceeding 1 million bpd. Hardy’s assessment, de...