Washington lobbyists skeptical of prediction market limits before Congress ends

More than half of Washington’s lobbying community believes Congress will leave prediction markets largely untouched through the end of 2026. According to a recent poll, 57% of K Street respondents don’t expect lawmakers to pass legislation that would further restrict or outlaw trading on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket before the 119th Congress concludes. The lobbying math behind the status quo Kalshi reported $990,000 in federal lobbying expenditures during just the first half of 2026, a pace that’s expected to exceed its full-year 2025 total. Polymarket has maintained its own lobbying efforts on a smaller scale, but the combined push from the sector reflects a clear strategy: make sure Washington doesn’t move the goalposts while these platforms are still building their user bases. Several bills targeting insider trading by government officials on prediction platforms were introduced in 2026, including the bipartisan Public Integrity in Financial Prediction Markets Act. Other proposals aimed to restrict CFTC-regulated platforms from listing contracts tied to sports outcomes and politically sensitive events. None of these have gained the momentum needed to reach the finish lin...