What is Bitcoin halving and why does it move the price

Summary Bitcoin halving reduces the block reward by 50% every 210,000 blocks, roughly once every four years, permanently slowing the rate at which new BTC enters circulation. Four halvings have occurred so far: November 2012 (50 to 25 BTC), July 2016 (25 to 12.5 BTC), May 2020 (12.5 to 6.25 BTC), and April 2024 (6.25 to 3.125 BTC). The current block reward is 3.125 BTC per block, and as of September 2026 the network has mined past block 965,000, putting the fifth halving on track for roughly early 2028. Stock-to-flow models gained popularity for linking halvings to price cycles, but their predictive accuracy has weakened significantly since 2022, and most institutional analysts treat them as one signal among many rather than a reliable forecast. Hash rate reached approximately 738 EH/s by September 2026, showing that miners continue to invest in hardware despite lower per-block revenue, though margins have tightened and some operators are pivoting toward artificial intelligence workloads. Most people assume that a Bitcoin halving is a single dramatic event, a switch that flips and sends the price upward. The reality is more mechanical and less certain. A halving is a pre-programmed...