Wheat surges on concerns over Russian commitment to Ukraine war

Chicago wheat futures have been on a tear, climbing roughly 14-15% over the past month alone as fresh signals emerge that Russia has no intention of winding down its war in Ukraine. Wheat recently traded near $7.35 per bushel, well off the three-year highs near $7.60-$7.67 hit in late August but still up more than 40% year-over-year by some measures. The Black Sea bottleneck Russia and Ukraine together account for somewhere between 27% and 32% of global wheat trade, depending on the season. Reciprocal strikes on port infrastructure and vessel attacks have slashed Black Sea grain shipments by more than 40% compared to a year ago. Russian wheat exports via the affected routes, which normally represent about 70% of the country’s total shipments, are facing severe constraints. September projections for Russian wheat exports are tracking at their lowest levels since 2010. Ukrainian export forecasts haven’t fared much better. Industry groups have revised their 2026-27 projections sharply lower, with potential shortfalls measured in the millions of tons. Weather compounds the problem Drought conditions across the Northern Hemisphere have added a second layer of pressure to global wheat su...