2 hours ago
2
The White House says a good deal with Iran is close, crediting Operation Epic Fury and Trump’s negotiating ability. The US-Iran permanent peace deal by April 22 market is at 17.5% YES, down from 16% yesterday.
Market reaction
The peace deal markets show clear separation across deadlines. The April 30 market is at 37.5%, while May 31 and June 30 are at 59.0% and 69.5%. The biggest jump is between April 30 and May 31, which points to traders expecting a major development in early May.
The diplomatic meeting markets, which predict whether no qualifying US-Iran meetings occur by June 30, sit flat at 3.4% YES across all sub-markets. That 3.4% figure says traders overwhelmingly expect meetings to happen, though actual trading volume is thin at $884/day.
Why it matters
The peace deal market has $1.1M in USDC volume, and it takes $63,459 to move the April 22 odds by 5 points. That level of liquidity means the prices reflect real money behind real positions, not speculative noise.
The White House statement points toward diplomacy but lacks specifics, which explains the cautious pricing. Buying YES at 17.5¢ for the April 22 deadline pays 8x, but the bet requires concrete developments within two days.
What to watch
Announcements of high-level meetings or public confirmations of a deal framework would move these markets fast. Specifically, Trump or Iranian leaders naming diplomatic venues or timelines would be the clearest catalysts.
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