2 hours ago
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White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said the situation for the Iranian regime is worsening. The odds for the Iranian regime falling by June 30 are now at 8.5% YES, while the ceasefire by April 30 sits at 16.5% YES.
The failed Islamabad negotiations and Leavitt’s remarks have pushed sentiment toward regime instability. The June 30 market is at 8.5% YES, up from 6% yesterday. The April 30 market remains flat at 0.7% YES, which prices in very low probability of immediate collapse.
Leavitt’s statement also hit ceasefire prospects hard. Odds for a ceasefire by April 30 dropped to 16.5% YES from 32% yesterday. Traders are pricing in further military action rather than a diplomatic resolution.
The regime fall markets combined for $33,064 in actual USDC over the last 24 hours. The June 30 market needs $16,963 to move 5 points, suggesting steady liquidity. The ceasefire market traded $68,607 in actual USDC, with a large 5-point move at 6:59 PM capturing the day’s volatility.
Leavitt’s comments point to a shift from negotiation toward military escalation, which makes the regime instability bet worth considering as a contrarian position. A YES share for the regime falling by June 30 at 8.5¢ pays $1, a 11.8x return. This is a high-risk trade that depends on regime fractures or intensified US actions.
Watch for Pentagon briefings and any IRGC movements. A sudden change in posture or leadership could move these markets fast.
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