Why a sudden 5,500 BTC drop in leveraged short positions failed to deliver the bullish confirmation Bitcoin traders wanted

Leveraged funds' combined net bearish position across CME's standard and micro Bitcoin futures narrowed by 5,566.5 BTC-equivalent between July 21 and July 28.The Commodity Futures Trading Commission's futures-only report, released at 3:30 p.m. ET on Friday, July 31, captured positions as of Tuesday, July 28. It showed asset managers moving the other way: their combined directional net weakened by 2,204.3 BTC-equivalent over the same week.The split in the numbersThe two groups remained on opposite sides of the market after those changes:Trader groupJuly 21–28 change in directional netJuly 28 directional netLeveraged funds5,566.5 BTC less net bearish33,712.3 BTC net shortAsset managers2,204.3 BTC less net bullish11,284.3 BTC net longFor leveraged funds, the standard Bitcoin futures net improved by 1,076 contracts, equal to 5,380 BTC. The Micro Bitcoin futures net improved by another 1,865 contracts, equal to 186.5 BTC. CME's contract guide sets the standard contract at 5 BTC and the micro at 0.1 BTC.For asset managers, the standard-contract net fell by 428 contracts, or 2,140 BTC, while the micro-contract net fell by 643 contracts, or 64.3 BTC. These figures measure directional net e...