2 hours ago
2
Bitcoin is playing out a price movement that has convinced many traders that October 2025 was the cycle peak. However, an interesting technical analysis shows that the market structure still does not look complete. Analyst CryptoAmsterdam made the case that Bitcoin is moving through a temporary correction inside a much larger phase. If that reading is correct, then Bitcoin could still stage a stronger rally than previous bull markets.
Bitcoin May Still Be Inside An Unfinished Macro Bull Cycle
Every major Bitcoin bull run has followed a recognizable five-stage sequence: a bull phase, a bear phase, accumulation below the macro range, a disbelief rally back into range, and finally a parabolic move into new all-time highs. This structure has held across the 2013, 2017, and 2021 cycles, each one completing all five stages within roughly a four-year window. The current cycle has not.
According to CryptoAmsterdam’s analysis, Bitcoin reached a new peak without delivering the characteristic Stage 5 parabolic expansion. The chart comparisons he shared by plotting Bitcoin’s weekly price action against prior cycles show that the 2013, 2017, and 2021 cycles each measured approximately 1,456 to 1,477 days from trough to peak, with Stage 5 accounting for the most explosive price movement in each case.
That phase, however, appears structurally absent in the current cycle. Price action has entered a corrective period since the peak at $126,000, but the cycle framework, by this reading, is still open.
Price Chart Comparison. Source: @damskotrades On X
The technical analysis also shows that price action can look weak on a shorter time frame and still remain bullish on a much larger one. That is where Bitcoin appears to be sitting now. The chart setup shows the recent correction is only a mini-cycle correction forming inside a broader macro continuation.
This reading becomes more interesting when placed beside gold and Alphabet. In both examples, price also advanced within a larger macro cycle, paused for a mid-cycle correction, and then resumed higher once that smaller reset was complete.
According to CryptoAmsterdam, Bitcoin could now be doing something similar. If the reading is correct, then Bitcoin’s current price action is Stage 3 of a mini-cycle nested within the larger Stage 5 of that macrocycle. Therefore, the parabolic phase would still be ahead.
Gold And Alphabet Inc. Source: @damskotrades On X
Possibility Of A New Price High
Another reason for a stronger rally is Bitcoin’s tendency to lag other assets. Over the last several years, Bitcoin has often printed macro structures similar to large-cap stocks, only with a delay that can stretch into hundreds of days. That makes Bitcoin look less like the leader of the cycle and more like the final participant.
Notably, technical analysis shows that gold has always bottomed well before Bitcoin did. For instance, Bitcoin moved higher during gold’s advance in the previous cycle in 2021 but underwent an entire mini-cycle correction while gold was trending straight up. Only when gold completed and topped its parabolic rally did Bitcoin take over into a vertical move, as shown in the chart below.
Gold And BTC. Source: @damskotrades On X
The next outlook now is that Bitcoin will continue its larger Stage 5 move like we saw with Gold and Google (Alphabet Inc.). The projected move is expected to push the Bitcoin price into macro cycle highs above $200,000.
Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com
English (US) · 