Will Bitcoin Price Crash to $25,000?

Bitcoin price has been struggling to reclaim its bullish momentum after peaking earlier this year. As of March 29, 2025, BTC price is trading around $84,122, showing signs of weakness following a period of consolidation. With investors anxiously eyeing potential downside levels, one burning question dominates the crypto space: Will Bitcoin crash to $25,000? This analysis decodes the current market structure, moving averages, RSI signals, and price action patterns to offer a realistic outlook for Bitcoin in the days ahead.

Bitcoin Price Prediction: Is BTC Price Losing Momentum After Its 2025 Rally?

BTC/USD Daily Chart- TradingView

Looking at the daily chart, it’s evident that Bitcoin’s euphoric rally from late 2024 into early 2025 has faded significantly. After reaching highs near $110,000, the price began a series of lower highs and lower lows—a classic signal of a weakening trend. What’s more concerning is that Bitcoin has failed to reclaim its 50-day simple moving average (currently near $89,112), which now acts as dynamic resistance. The 20-day SMA has also crossed below the 50-day, indicating short-term bearish pressure.

Bitcoin’s recent price decline can be attributed in large part to rising global trade tensions, which have injected a fresh wave of uncertainty into global financial markets. The U.S. government’s decision on March 25th to impose 25% tariffs on auto imports and other goods from Canada, Mexico, and China has intensified fears of a looming global economic slowdown. 

As a result, investor sentiment has soured across risk-on assets, including equities and cryptocurrencies. The S&P 500’s 1.85% drop since the announcement is a clear indication that traditional markets are also feeling the heat, and Bitcoin—often viewed as a high-volatility speculative asset—has not been spared. 

As protectionist measures ramp up and retaliatory trade actions loom, investors may continue to shift capital into safer, less volatile assets, causing continued selling pressure on BTC in the near term. If these macroeconomic headwinds persist without resolution, Bitcoin could struggle to find support and potentially revisit much lower levels, possibly even approaching the $70,000–$60,000 range in the coming weeks.

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Are the Moving Averages Signaling a Major Breakdown?

Yes, and here’s why it matters. The 100-day SMA at $93,885 and the 200-day SMA around $85,713 are now tightly compressing near the current price zone. Historically, when price battles the 200-day SMA from below and fails to hold, it often results in accelerated declines. If Bitcoin price decisively breaks below the 200-day SMA and holds under $83,000, that would open the gates toward much lower levels, triggering panic selling across retail and even institutional segments.

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What Is RSI Saying About Bitcoin's Strength?

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 43.09, well below the neutral 50 mark and clearly in bearish territory. RSI has not recovered above 50 since early March, suggesting that buyers are losing conviction while sellers are slowly gaining control. During strong uptrends, RSI tends to hover between 50 and 80. The failure to do so here reinforces the argument that Bitcoin could see more pain before any sustainable reversal.

Could $25,000 Really Be on the Table?

While a plunge to $25,000 seems extreme to many, it cannot be ruled out entirely. Bitcoin has a history of brutal corrections—often shedding 40–60% after making all-time highs. From its recent peak near $110,000, a 60% retracement would put BTC price right around the $44,000 level. But if macroeconomic uncertainties, regulatory crackdowns, or black swan events (like major exchange collapses) hit the market, psychological levels like $50,000, $35,000, and even $25,000 could come into play as panic overrides fundamentals. It's not the most likely scenario, but it's well within the realm of possibility—especially if key support levels break.

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What Levels Should Bulls Defend to Avoid a Crash?

The most immediate support lies near $83,000, just under the 200-day SMA. If that level holds and Bitcoin price bounces back above $89,000, bulls could regain some short-term control. However, if the $80,000–83,000 range fails to hold, the next support zone sits around $72,000, followed by $60,000—both of which saw strong accumulation in past cycles. If these levels also crumble, then yes, $25,000 becomes a realistic downside target over a multi-month time frame.

Bitcoin Price Prediction: Is This a Dip or the Beginning of a Deep Crash?

Right now, Bitcoin is in a precarious zone. The bulls are losing steam, momentum indicators are fading, and long-term moving averages are starting to compress in ways that often precede significant breakdowns. While a crash to $25,000 is not imminent, it's a scenario that traders and investors must prepare for if current supports fail to hold.