Will Crypto Markets Recover When $2B Bitcoin Options Expire Today?

Approximately 28,000 Bitcoin options contracts are expiring on Friday, Nov. 1, with a notional value of around $2 billion.

Today’s options expiry is much smaller than last week’s month-end event, which saw more than double the value of BTC options expiring. Therefore, its impact on spot markets is likely to be muted.

Bitcoin Options Expiry

This week’s tranch of Bitcoin options contracts, the first in November, has a put/call ratio of 0.92. This means that long (calls) and short (puts) contract expiries are more evenly distributed. The max pain point of today’s batch is $69,000, which is pretty close to current spot prices.

Additionally, open interest (OI), or the value or number of open options contracts yet to expire, has surged to $1.3 billion at the strike price of $80,000, according to Deribit.

This week, the head of derivatives at Arbelos Markets, Joshua Lim, observed that CME Bitcoin options experienced some of the largest volume days ever ahead of the US election. He said there were large contract buys for the $85,000 strike price, which is “very bullish positioning into the election,” before adding that it was “great to see institutions sizing up like this on CME.”

“Perhaps a good sign that there is and will be growing liquidity in the crypto derivatives markets as the asset class matures.”

1 Nov Options Data
28,000 BTC options expired with a Put Call Ratio of 0.92, a Maxpain point of $69,000 and a notional value of $1.97 billion.
137,000 ETH options expired with a Put Call Ratio of 0.69, a Maxpain point of $2,550 and a notional value of $350 million.
Bitcoin hit… pic.twitter.com/skJ4ofhpOk

— Greeks.live (@GreeksLive) November 1, 2024

In addition to today’s Bitcoin options, there are around 137,000 Ethereum options contracts ready to expire with a put/call ratio of 0.68, a max pain point of $2,550, and a notional value of $350 million. This brings Friday’s combined crypto options expiry notional value to around $2.3 billion.

Crypto Market Outlook

Around $100 billion has been dumped from total crypto market capitalization over the last 24 hours, dropping it to $2.43 trillion in a 5.5% slump.

Bitcoin flirted with its all-time high on Oct. 30 but failed to breach it and move into new price discovery. It has since corrected by 4% briefly slipping below $69,000 during the Friday morning Asian trading session.

Ethereum topped out at $2,700 but could not find any more momentum and has since retreated back to $2,500.

Moreover, most of the altcoins have remained lethargic all week, failing to follow Bitcoin’s big move, and most of them are deep in the red this Friday morning.