WTO lifts 2026 trade growth forecast to 3.9% as AI goods carry the load

The World Trade Organization has sharply upgraded its view of global commerce. Merchandise trade volumes are now projected to grow 3.9% in 2026, then speed up to 4.1% in 2027. Back in March, the same organization was penciling in 1.9% for this year. That means the forecast more than doubled in about seven months. What changed in the WTO’s math The revised Global Trade Outlook landed on October 8, 2026. Alongside the 2026 upgrade, the WTO raised its 2027 merchandise trade estimate from 2.6% to 4.1%. The engine behind the upgrade is artificial intelligence. More precisely, it is the physical hardware that AI runs on: semiconductors, servers and the rest of the equipment that fills data centers. Those AI-enabling goods accounted for nearly 47% of global merchandise trade growth. Their volumes jumped 67% year-on-year. The first half of 2026 tells the same story. Merchandise trade grew 3.5% over that stretch, and AI-related goods drove nearly half of it. AI infrastructure spending is expected to rise by at least 30% in 2026, followed by another 10-20% in 2027. The war-shaped hole in the outlook The US-Israeli conflict with Iran, which began in February 2026, has rattled energy markets a...