XRP whale wallets surge past 300K — is a breakout on the horizon?

XRP is showing early signs of quiet accumulation as large wallet activity spikes, but the price remains range-bound.

Over 300,000 addresses now hold 10,000 or more XRP (XRP), according to a May 5 post on X by crypto analyst Kyledoops. The sharp increase in whale wallets points to growing confidence from whales and institutional players, sparking speculation about a potential move in XRP’s price.

“Looks like strategic accumulation is back,” Kyledoops wrote, suggesting that big players may be positioning early for major XRP developments.

On May 6, another analyst, Max Avery, added that XRP’s sideways trading range reflects “price controls” driven by steady institutional accumulation through methods like time-weighted average price and volume-weighted average price.

According to Avery, this kind of calculated buying, often used by institutions to reduce price impact, could be in preparation for a spot XRP exchange-traded fund. When asked why ETF hype isn’t already driving prices higher, Avery responded that the impact may be “more gradual” over time.

Meanwhile, XRP catalysts continue to pile up. In Q1, XRP outperformed Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), rallying nearly 50% in early February, according to Ripple’s latest report. The XRP/BTC ratio rose 10%, and XRP investment products attracted $37.7 million in inflows, just shy of Ethereum’s $214 million year-to-date.

A leveraged XRP ETF launched in April, and spot ETF filings from Franklin Templeton and Bitwise are pending approval from the Securities and Exchange Commission. Ripple has also settled its long-running SEC lawsuit with a $50 million payment, but the market reaction has been subdued, potentially because it was already priced in.

While the fundamentals point to long-term potential, the technical picture remains mixed. On the bullish side, XRP has defended key support around $2.05 and remains above the 200-day estimated moving average near $1.99. Momentum indicators such as the stochastic relative strength index show oversold conditions.

XRP price analysis. Credit: crypto.news

A move toward the $2.30–$2.40 range may be possible if there is a clear break above the 10-day and 20-day EMAs, which are at $2.17 and $2.19, respectively. But it’s impossible to overlook the bearish scenario. 

XRP continues to trade below its short- and mid-term moving averages, and the RSI is neutral at 48.7, showing a lack of strong upward momentum. Momentum and moving average convergence divergence indicators also tilt slightly bearish, suggesting sellers are still active. If XRP loses the $2.05 support level, it risks slipping back toward $1.99 or even lower, which could invalidate the bullish whale accumulation thesis in the short term.

For now, all eyes are on whether whales know something the market doesn’t, or whether they’re early to a move that still needs confirmation on the charts.