Year Of The Underdog: Why Dogecoin Is On The Verge Of A Major Recovery

It has been a brutal few months for Dogecoin in terms of price action. At the time of writing, Dogecoin is trading just below $0.10, below all of its moving averages, and sitting more than 86% below its all-time high. 

The price action looks bad for Dogecoin; however, a look at the on-chain data tells an entirely different story of resilience and network activity that’s being ignored. If history is any guide, this is exactly the kind of environment before a major recovery.

Dogecoin’s Network Growth

Price is often the last thing to move during rallies. Before any significant rally materializes, bullish sentiment tends to show up first in the data, and right now, Dogecoin’s network data is showing signs that demand serious attention. At the time of writing, daily active addresses are currently around 54,500, having recently spiked to nearly 58,000 this week. 

Even more notable is the longer-term trend. As noted by crypto analyst PennybagsCX on X, average address activity has grown from 806,000 earlier in the year to above 1.05 million in recent readings. This growth is happening during a price dip, showing participants are choosing to engage with the network at a time when it would be easy to walk away.

For context, Dogecoin currently ranks third among all Proof-of-Work blockchains by 24-hour active addresses, commanding a 12% share of total PoW activity and outperforming blockchains like Dash and Bitcoin Cash.

Buyers Are Hunting, Long-Term Holders Holding

Derivatives’ positioning is also starting to tilt bullish. According to Coinglass’ long/short ratio data across Binance, OKX, and Bybit, retail traders are heavily positioned on the long side. On Binance, the retail long/short ratio stands at 2.29, while whale accounts show a ratio of 2.73, both indicating bullish sentiment. Whale positions on Binance also have a 1.94 long bias.

Retail positioning on OKX is more pronounced, with a long/short ratio of 3.49, categorized as extremely bullish. Whale accounts on OKX show a 1.61 ratio leaning bullish, although whale positions currently have a more cautious stance in open exposure at 0.79.

Source: Chart from Coinglass

Bybit data shows similar optimism, with retail at 2.98 and whale accounts at 2.99 on the long side. Whale positions on Bybit are also close to neutral at 0.99, suggesting balanced positioning but not outright bearish pressure. The only note of caution in the data is Smart Money Sentiment, which reads as bearish across all three of the biggest Dogecoin exchanges.

Another telling signal has been the Taker Volume Ratio, which recently climbed to around 63%. This means traders executing market buy orders are dominating the activity. When the ratio moves above 50%, it means a stronger demand, as buyers are willing to pay prevailing prices.

Furthermore, Dogecoin’s Profit-Days metric has surpassed 1,100 for the first time in its history. This long-cycle indicator moves based on sustained profitability among holders. History shows that moves above 800 days are major turning points that were followed by parabolic runs in subsequent months.

DOGE trading at $0.09 on the 1D chart | Source: DOGEUSDT on Tradingview.com

Featured image from Peakpx, chart from Tradingview.com