67% chance Fed holds rates in September, Kalshi traders say

Kalshi markets currently estimate a 67% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain its current interest rate in the upcoming September meeting. This estimation suggests that market participants largely anticipate no change, reflecting stability in the monetary policy landscape. The Federal Reserve’s current effective federal funds rate stands at 3.63%, with the target range’s upper limit at 3.75%. This aligns with the Federal Open Market Committee’s recent trend of keeping rates steady. Market pricing implies that participants are leaning towards a scenario where the Federal Reserve opts to pause rate adjustments, consistent with recent statements and inflation data. The broader market for Fed decisions from June to September shows a 69.5% likelihood of a “Pause–Pause–Pause” outcome, further supporting this scenario. Conversely, the likelihood of a “Pause–Pause–Cut” remains extremely low at 0.9%, indicating little expectation of a rate reduction in the near term. Key Takeaways Kalshi’s 67% estimate appears consistent with no rate change by the Federal Reserve in September. The effective federal funds rate of 3.63% supports the current pricing of a stable policy environment....