Argentina surpasses England in World Cup odds ahead of semi-final clash

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Argentina has overtaken England in the prediction market odds for winning the 2026 FIFA World Cup, according to Kalshi. As the tournament reaches its semi-final stage, Argentina’s market-implied probability of victory has increased, suggesting that participants view the team as a stronger contender than England. This shift comes as Argentina and England prepare to face off in the second semi-final, with England slightly favored to win the match on the moneyline. Previously, Argentina’s chances of winning the tournament were estimated at 9%, while England had a 12.5% implied probability.

Key Takeaways

• Kalshi’s prediction markets suggest Argentina now has a higher chance of winning the World Cup than England.
• The shift in odds reflects market participants’ perception of Argentina’s enhanced prospects following recent tournament progress.
• Argentina and England’s upcoming semi-final clash is pivotal, with England still favored to win the match according to current odds.

What to Watch

The semi-final match between Argentina and England on July 15 could significantly impact future market odds, depending on the outcome. Market participants will be closely watching Lionel Messi’s performance and any strategic adjustments by Argentina’s head coach, Lionel Scaloni. Should Argentina defeat England, further strengthening their competitive position, it would be consistent with scenarios where Argentina’s probability of winning the tournament increases even more. Conversely, an England victory might reverse the current market trend favoring Argentina.

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