August CPI expected to exceed 3.3% with 62% probability, Kalshi markets show

Inflation is refusing to finish its victory lap. With the Bureau of Labor Statistics set to release August 2026 CPI data on September 11, prediction market platform Kalshi is assigning a 62% probability that year-over-year headline inflation will come in above 3.3%. That contract is currently trading at 62 cents. The timing matters enormously. The Federal Open Market Committee meets September 15-16, meaning policymakers will have exactly four days to digest the August print before deciding whether to raise rates for the first time since 2023. What the numbers actually say Economist consensus, compiled by FactSet, is clustering around a 3.3% year-over-year headline CPI reading for August. That would represent a slight softening from July’s 3.4% figure, which itself marked a deceleration from the mid-2026 peak of 3.5%. Core CPI, which strips out food and energy, is expected to land around 2.4% year-over-year. July’s core reading was 2.5%. On a month-over-month basis, forecasters at MUFG Research and FactSet are penciling in headline gains of between 0.3% and 0.4%, with core monthly change expected at 0.2%. The wildcard is gasoline. Energy prices have been flagged as a meaningful upsi...